Value flows to whichever physical layer is the binding constraint. The map holds the candidate layers, including ones not yet named. Where and how hard the constraint binds is read from filings each quarter, never assumed — and when innovation routes around a constraint, the map is built to show it relaxing.
The constraint map
Rows are physical layers; columns are the five tells a filing can show. A cell is PRESENT only when found in a filing. Where more than one company has been read on a layer, the cell shows how many of them show the tell — "2 of 3" — never the union. Evidence chips: [F] filing-grade; [F-KR/PROV] a provisional Korean pattern set that a Korean-reading reviewer may overturn. Hover a cell for the names.
PRESENT — every name read shows itk of n — some names read show it, some do not (never the union)ABSENT — tested against a real filing, not thereNOT_ASSESSABLE — the test could not runUNKNOWN — never looked[F] filing-grade evidence[F-KR/PROV] provisional Korean pattern set
The five tells, defined
signature
plain English
what it looks like in a filing
strength
prepayments
Customers pay before delivery.
Customer deposits or contract liabilities growing faster than revenue; "advance payments from customers".
Strong — cash moves before product does.
capacity_reservation
Customers book future output in advance.
"capacity reservation agreement", "long-term supply agreement" with committed volumes or reserved wafer starts.
Strong — commitment to a specific supplier.
lead_time
Order-to-ship time is stretching.
MD&A language: "supply constrained", "extended lead times", "allocation".
Weakest of the five — can be inherited from upstream, not owned.
take_or_pay
Customer pays whether or not it takes the product.
Strongest — the buyer has accepted the supplier's terms.
gm_pricing_power
Margin rises on the same product.
Gross margin expanding without a mix shift; price increases disclosed in MD&A.
Strong but lagging — shows after the others.
What the map knows, and what it does not
What it knows
Compute — 2 names read (NVDA, INTC); 4 of 5 signatures seen on at least one name; 1 absent on every name read.
Memory bandwidth — 2 names read (SKHY, SSNLF); 2 of 5 signatures seen on at least one name (1 only weakly); 2 absent on every name read; 1 not assessable from the filings read. provisional 5 of 5 cells rest on a provisional Korean pattern set.
Optical interconnect — 2 names read (TSEM, AAOI); 2 of 5 signatures seen on at least one name; 3 absent on every name read.
Substrate — assessed from the charter's worked case, names not itemised on the cells; 4 of 5 signatures seen on at least one name; 1 never looked.
Advanced packaging — 1 name read (TSM); 2 of 5 signatures seen on at least one name; 1 absent on every name read; 2 not assessable from the filings read.
Power — 3 names read (CEG, GEV, VRT); 5 of 5 signatures seen on at least one name (1 only weakly).
What it does not
Compute — names disagree on prepayments, capacity_reservation — shown as a fraction, never as the union; no falsifier clock is running.
Memory bandwidth — prepayments could not be tested from the documents on file.
Optical interconnect — names disagree on prepayments, capacity_reservation — shown as a fraction, never as the union.
Substrate — no falsifier clock is running.
Advanced packaging — one name is not the rung — the cells say what that filer shows, not what every vendor on the layer shows; lead_time, gm_pricing_power could not be tested from the documents on file.
Power — names disagree on prepayments, capacity_reservation, take_or_pay — shown as a fraction, never as the union.
Physical embodiment — never assessed: no filing has been read against it.
Hub and spokes
One live constraint chain; candidate chains wait behind four graduation gates (G1 chokepoint · G2 pure-play · G3 credible voice · G4 testable in filings).
A row is a physical layer AI scaling passes through. A spoke is a separate constraint chain with its own chokepoint, voices, and ladder, sharing one core and one book.
Drawn from core/ladder.json, data/architecture-nodes.json and the gate files at build; ladder generated 2026-09-07 06:02:02.