The short form
Research on a paper model book, not investment advice. Nothing here is an offer, a solicitation, or advice to any reader, and nothing is tailored to your situation. The publisher may hold or trade securities discussed here; the disclosures page records how. By using this site you accept the terms of use.
Before you read on
This site publishes research on a paper model book.
Corrected 2026-09-18. Originally read: “This site publishes research on a paper model book. It is produced with automated tools that read filings and market data, and every call is graded against later filings.” The deleted sentence said every call is graded against later filings, which the record does not support; it was removed, not replaced.
It is not investment advice and nothing here is tailored to you. Figures can be wrong, late, or superseded; check the source before relying on any of them.
What this site is
Research briefs and a paper model book: positions with an entry date, an entry price read from a public source, a conviction score, a thesis, and the condition that would prove it wrong. No real money is traded in the model book. The site is open to the public; there is no subscription, no paid tier, and no personalised communication with readers.
What this site is not
Not investment advice, not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, and not a substitute for your own judgment or for a licensed adviser. The publisher is not registered as an investment adviser or broker-dealer. Nothing here accounts for any reader's objectives, finances, or risk tolerance.
Known limits of the model
- Filing-first, and therefore late. Scores move on filings and dated company documents, which arrive weeks or months after a story does. The model is slow to react to narrative moves by design, and it says so.
- Small-sample calibration. The record of graded calls is short. A grade on a handful of claims is a grade on a handful of claims; treat every hit rate here as provisional until the sample is large.
- A sleeve held on thesis alone. Some positions sit in a thesis sleeve with no filing signature behind them. They are held on an argument, not on a document, and are labelled so.
- Automated reading. Documents are fetched and read by software before a person rules on them. Extraction can miss, misread, or mis-attribute; the source link is there so you can check.
Data attribution
Filings are read from SEC EDGAR (United States), DART (Korea) and EDINET (Japan). Market data comes from third-party providers and is read as published, with the source and time of each read recorded. Company transcripts and public commentary are quoted at under fifteen words with a link to the original; nothing is republished in full. Trademarks belong to their owners.
No performance claims
The site publishes no return, gain, or performance figure for the model book until the book's mandate allows it. Until then the book page shows positions and conviction scores only, and each call is graded on its own.
Holdings and disclosures
The publisher may hold or trade securities discussed on this site. Trades in covered securities are recorded on the holdings disclosure as a ticker and a date. The rest is on the full disclosures page.
Your acknowledgment
On a first visit the site asks you to acknowledge these terms. That acknowledgment is stored only in your browser, is never sent anywhere, and is asked again whenever this text changes. With scripts disabled the site works the same, and this page and the footer remain.
Contact
contact@pschafer.com